Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a consolidation phase, indicating a battle between bulls and bears. In the short term, the bears have the advantage as historical data shows that Bitcoin prices tend to fall by an average of 8.33% during the 14th week of the year, according to Coinglass data.
Traders are closely watching the performance of spot Bitcoin-exchange traded funds (ETFs), as they have been a major driver of price movement. In March, the trading volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs surged from $42.2 billion in February to $111 billion, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
However, uncertainty is increasing as the Bitcoin halving approaches. Independent analyst Rekt Capital believes that the current pullback is a normal part of the pre-halving retracement, which has historically resulted in significant drops in Bitcoin’s price.
Now, let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to determine the important levels to watch out for.
Bitcoin Price Analysis:
The bulls have repeatedly failed to push the price above $71,770, leading to a drop below the 20-day exponential moving average ($67,646) on April 2. The 20-day EMA has flattened out, and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If the price falls below the 50-day simple moving average ($63,098), it could open the door for a further drop to $59,000 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $54,298. On the other hand, a rise above the 20-day EMA would suggest a range-bound action, with the bulls needing to push the price above the $71,770 to $73,777 resistance zone to signal the start of the next uptrend leg to $80,000.
Ether Price Analysis:
Ether (ETH) has fallen below the 50-day SMA ($3,414), indicating a weakening bullish momentum. The 20-day EMA ($3,493) is turning down, and the RSI is below the midpoint, indicating that the bears have the upper hand. If the price drops below $3,056, selling pressure could increase, pushing the ETH/USDT pair to $2,700. To prevent further downside, the bulls need to push the price back above the moving averages, suggesting a range-bound action between $3,056 and $3,679. A break above $3,679 would indicate that bulls are back in control, with a potential rise to $4,100.
BNB Price Analysis:
BNB has slipped below the 20-day EMA ($561), signaling weakening bullish momentum. The 20-day EMA is flattening out, and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a range-bound action in the near term. If the price rises from the current level, it could reach the downtrend line. However, if the price continues to decline and breaks below $535, the next support level is likely to be $495. A break below that level could lead to a further decline to the breakout level of $460.
Solana Price Analysis:
Solana has fallen to the 20-day EMA ($181), but a sharp rebound on April 3 shows that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will try to overcome the barrier at $205, and if they succeed, it could signal the start of the next uptrend leg. The pair may rally to $243 and later to $260. However, if the price turns down from $205, it will indicate that the bears are defending the level, increasing the likelihood of a drop below the 20-day EMA. In that case, short-term traders may sell their positions, pushing the pair to the 50-day SMA ($150).
XRP Price Analysis:
XRP remains within a large range between $0.46 and $0.74. The price fell below the uptrend line on April 1, indicating that the bears are trying to take control. The bulls are attempting a relief rally, but it is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.61). If the price turns down from this resistance, the likelihood of a drop below $0.56 increases, with a potential slump to $0.52. On the other hand, if buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will signal strong buying at lower levels, with a potential rise to $0.69 and eventually $0.74, which is a key resistance level.
Cardano Price Analysis:
Cardano has been under sustained selling pressure, reaching the strong support at $0.57. Buyers are expected to defend this level vigorously. If the price rebounds from $0.57, it is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.64). If the price turns lower from the 20-day EMA, it increases the possibility of a drop below $0.57, completing a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and potentially leading to a fall to the critical support at $0.46. However, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests consolidation between $0.57 and $0.68, with a rise above $0.68 indicating the end of the corrective phase.
Dogecoin Price Analysis:
Dogecoin turned down sharply on April 2, falling below the breakout level of $0.19. The price continued to decline, slipping below the 20-day EMA ($0.18) on April 3. However, solid buying at lower levels is indicated by the long tail on the candlestick. If the buyers push the price back above $0.20, it will suggest that the correction may be over, and the bulls will attempt to challenge the overhead resistance at $0.23. On the other hand, if the price remains below the 20-day EMA, it suggests that every minor rally is being sold into, with a potential slump to the 50-day SMA ($0.14).
Avalanche Price Analysis:
The failure to rise above the downtrend line led to selling pressure, and Avalanche plunged below the breakout level of $50 on April 2. The selling continued, with the price dropping below the 50-day SMA ($47) on April 3. Buyers are trying to defend the 50-day SMA, but the recovery is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it increases the likelihood of a break below the 50-day SMA, potentially retesting the crucial support at $42. A break and close above the downtrend line would invalidate this bearish view.
Shiba Inu Price Analysis:
Shiba Inu fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.000028) on April 2, indicating bearish activity at higher levels. The pair could drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.000023), which is expected to act as strong support. A rebound from this level could lead to an attempt to push the pair to $0.000033. A break and close above this level would be the first sign of a bullish comeback, with a potential rally to $0.000039. On the other hand, a drop below the 50-day SMA could indicate a deeper correction towards $0.000017.
Toncoin Price Analysis:
Toncoin reached the 20-day EMA ($4.63) on April 3, an important level to watch. If the rebound off the 20-day EMA holds, it suggests that traders continue to buy at lower levels, keeping the pair range-bound between the 20-day EMA and $5.69. However, if the price turns down and drops below the 20-day EMA, it indicates that bulls are taking profits quickly, potentially sinking the pair to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $4.22.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. It is important to conduct your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions.