The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a staggering increase of approximately 650% since the last halving event in 2020. If historical patterns are any indication, Bitcoin could potentially reach a price level of $435,000 before the next halving event in 2028.
Currently, according to data from TradingView, the Bitcoin price is trading around the $66,000 mark, reflecting a rise of about 658% since the previous halving. The upcoming halving in 2024 is just a few weeks away. If the price of Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory as the current cycle, it could reach $434,280 per coin by the time of the 2028 halving.
However, it is worth noting that the post-halving rallies of Bitcoin have shown diminishing returns over the years. From the first halving in 2012, where Bitcoin went from having almost no value to $12.50, experiencing an increase of over 12,400%, the price jumps have gradually decreased. The 2016 halving resulted in a 5,200% increase to $650, and the 2020 halving saw a 1,200% increase to $8,500.
Based on this diminishing returns trend, each cycle has seen a 45% decrease in the average price rally. If this pattern continues, the next cycle could deliver a 360% rally, resulting in a Bitcoin price of approximately $303,600 at the time of the 2028 halving.
While the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is not directly related to the upcoming halving, but rather attributed to the influx of investments into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), there is a possibility of Bitcoin ETFs surpassing gold ETFs in the next two years. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that if this were to occur, a six-figure price for BTC becomes even more feasible.
Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs are growing at a much faster rate than gold ETFs did when they first emerged in 2004. In fact, Bitcoin is outpacing gold’s price increase by fivefold, according to Sam Wouters, the head of contact at River.
It is important to note that this article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Readers should conduct their own research and analysis before making any investment decisions, as every investment and trading move carries its own risks.