Anticipations are high among crypto traders for the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024. However, analysts at Steno Research predict that it will follow the pattern of a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event. In the history of Bitcoin, there have been three halving events, which reduced miner rewards from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in 2012, then to 12.5 BTC in 2016, and 6.25 BTC in the most recent halving on May 11, 2020.
Steno Research expects BTC to repeat the selling pressure pattern seen in the 2016 halving, with the effects lasting up to four months. Despite heightened anticipation from Bitcoin ETF holders, the research firm believes that the upcoming halving will follow the same short-term trend. They anticipate a surge in BTC’s value leading up to the event, but warn that it could dip below its price at the time of the halving within the first 90 days after.
Analysts at Steno Research have identified similarities between the price performance of BTC before and after the 2016 halving, indicating that similar outcomes can be expected this time around. The report highlights that Bitcoin’s price remained below its pre-halving level for the entire 90-day period following the halving, with a price that was 8.4% lower than before.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin daily mining rewards are currently at their highest ever, suggesting that the value of the issuance will be high after the halving despite the reduced number of BTC issued. This implies that miners are likely to sell their Bitcoin gradually to cover mining costs, contributing to sell-side pressure and causing the BTC price to correct in the months following the halving.
Analysts believe that the halving is a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin’s price once the selling pressure from miners diminishes. They argue that even though people are aware of the halving, it is never fully priced in, and it is expected to cause a repricing that could send the price soaring. The Bitcoin halving is also expected to generate strong interest and growth in the wider Web3 ecosystem.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $71,563, representing a 3.8% increase over the last 24 hours. It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations, and readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.