$5B worth of BTC could be sold by Bitcoin miners following halving, according to 10x Research.

According to a market analyst, there is a possibility of a significant outflow of Bitcoin (BTC) from miners following the halving, similar to previous cycles. Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, calculated that miners could potentially liquidate $5 billion worth of BTC after the halving. He explained that this selling pressure could last for four to six months, causing Bitcoin to trade sideways, as it has done in the past after halvings. Thielen also noted that the crypto market could face a challenging period during a six-month “summer” lull. Previous data shows that Bitcoin prices remained within a range of $9,000 to $11,500 in the five months following the 2020 halving. This year’s halving is expected to occur around April 20, and if history repeats itself, significant upward momentum may not be seen until around October.


Thielen further mentioned that miners tend to stock up on BTC before the halving, leading to a supply/demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in prices. This has already happened, with BTC prices surging 74% in 2024 to reach an all-time high of $73,734 on March 14 before correcting to below $63,000 in mid-April. Thielen believes that altcoins, in particular, could be negatively impacted by this situation, as many of them have been experiencing significant declines in recent weeks and are far from their 2021 peaks.
Regarding specific miners, Thielen suggested that Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, has built up an inventory that will likely be gradually sold after the halving to prevent a sudden drop in revenue. As Marathon currently produces 28-30 BTC per day, this could result in an additional 133 days of supply hitting the market, along with the BTC they produce, which would be 14-15 BTC per day after the halving. If all miners adopt a similar strategy of selling their inventory post-halving, it could lead to a maximum of $104 million worth of BTC being sold per day, thus reversing the supply/demand imbalance that caused the pre-halving rally.
Marathon CEO Peter Thiel stated last week that the company’s break-even rate would be around $46,000 per BTC to remain profitable after the halving. He predicted that there would be minimal price movements during the six months following the event.
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