Bitcoin’s fourth halving event, which took place on April 20, has the potential to initiate a highly bullish cycle for the cryptocurrency. This prediction is based on historical chart patterns and the emergence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In a significant milestone for the crypto industry, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $73,600 on March 13, just before the halving event. Previous halvings have seen Bitcoin prices surge to new highs within 518 to 546 days.
The combination of the pre-halving all-time high and institutional inflows from the ten US spot Bitcoin ETFs has created an extremely positive outlook for Bitcoin. Sukhveer Sanghera, the founder and CEO of Earth Wallet, believes that this sets the stage for the most bullish scenario for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s price experienced a 5.6% drop on the weekly chart, trading above $63,600 as of 9:58 a.m. UTC. However, data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin has rallied over 50% since the beginning of 2024 and has only risen by 2.85% in the past month.
While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is expected to be bullish, it is common for halvings to be preceded by short-term corrections. If Bitcoin can surpass the $65,000 resistance, Temujin Louie, the CEO of Wanchain, believes that the current drawdown could come to an end.
The recent sluggish price action of Bitcoin can be attributed to a slowdown in Bitcoin accumulation within the ten US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Net inflows turned negative during the week of the halving, with $398 million worth of negative net outflows recorded, compared to over $199 million worth of net positive inflows the previous week.
Despite this temporary slump, the ten Bitcoin ETFs have collectively accumulated over 835,000 BTC, equivalent to $53.5 billion and accounting for 4.24% of the current Bitcoin supply.
Despite the decrease in ETF inflows, the narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s price action remains positive. Jonas Simanavicius, co-founder and CTO at Syntropy, believes that the decline in ETF inflows indicates an influx of new investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin. He also notes that Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a hedge against political tensions and a safe haven asset amid global conflicts.
In related news, it is expected that Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges will be depleted within the next nine months, according to Bybit.