Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant decline in recent days, causing concern for those who anticipated a surge following its fourth halving. The halving took place on April 20 at 12:09 am UTC, and at that time, Bitcoin was trading around $64,000. Immediately after the halving, there was a brief rally, with Bitcoin reaching above $67,000 on April 22. However, since then, the price has been steadily dropping, falling below $57,000 on May 1, according to data from CoinGecko.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $57,362, marking a 7% decrease over the past 24 hours and a decline of more than 17% over the past 30 days. This sharp decline in price following the halving may come as a surprise to those who expected a post-event rally, as has been observed in previous halving cycles.
Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with rallies that typically occur about a year or more after the event. For instance, in 2016, Bitcoin experienced a 3,000% surge in value within 17 months after the halving, reaching the milestone of $20,000 in December 2017.
However, the current halving cycle has been quite different from previous ones. One notable difference is that Bitcoin had an extraordinary bull run leading up to the fourth halving, reaching an all-time high just before the event. This price trajectory has never been witnessed before in Bitcoin’s history.
Mati Greenspan, the founder of Quantum Economics, commented on this unique characteristic, stating, “What’s unique about this latest Bitcoin halving is the incredible bull run and price action leading up to it. Even considering this recent pullback, Bitcoin has still been up 35% since the start of the year.”
Greenspan also noted that the current drop in Bitcoin’s price was somewhat anticipated given the decline in the stock market and broader economic circumstances.
Some crypto analysts had previously predicted a decline in Bitcoin’s price following the fourth halving. In March 2024, analysts from JPMorgan predicted that it could drop to around $42,000 after the event. Additionally, 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen believes that Bitcoin may fall to $52,000. Thielen attributes the recent rally to the inflow of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has significantly slowed down in the past month.
While the halving and the impact of United States ETFs are important factors, investment researcher Lyn Alden suggests that there are many other reasons why Bitcoin could reach new highs in 2024.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a sharp decline following its fourth halving, contrary to expectations of a post-event rally. The unique characteristics of this halving cycle, including the extraordinary bull run leading up to it, may help explain the deviation from historical patterns. Despite the recent drop, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential for future growth.