Bitcoin (BTC) is currently facing significant resistance, preventing its price from rebounding above $60,000. Despite a 6.2% recovery from this week’s lows, BTC/USD has been unable to break through crucial trendlines, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Bitcoin experienced a 23% pullback from its all-time highs in April and May, and the chances of a return to price discovery are currently low. Former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, expects BTC/USD to trade within a range below $70,000 until August.
However, in order to make progress, BTC needs to reclaim the $60,000 level, but the trendlines are currently favoring bears. The 100-day moving average (MA) for Bitcoin, which currently stands at $59,930 as of May 3, is a crucial trendline to watch. It has acted as major market support since October 2023 and has provided a floor for Bitcoin’s bull market in the first half of 2023. However, the price is now forming full daily candles below this trendline.
Trading resource Material Indicators commented on this phenomenon, stating that bulls are encountering strong technical resistance at the 100-day MA. A chart accompanying the comment showed one of their trading tools flashing green on daily timeframes. Reclaiming the 100-day moving average would be a significant achievement for Bitcoin bulls and could potentially trigger a short squeeze, according to co-founder Keith Alan.
Another hurdle for BTC’s price recovery is the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP), which is a classic bull market support line. This refers to the aggregate cost basis of speculative Bitcoin holders who have held their wallets for 155 days or less. When the price returns to the STH-RP line, it often acts as solid support, as it did during the bull market in early 2023. On May 1, STH-RP was at $59,684, forming another important trendline near the $60,000 level.
Caleb Franzen, CEO of Cubic Analysts, included STH-RP as one of the resistance levels that BTC needs to overcome. He stated that a daily close above $61,000 would be his personal line in the sand for “risk-on,” indicating that there is still much work to be done.
It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Readers should conduct their own research and analysis before making any investment decisions.