In spite of the crypto markets remaining stagnant for the past three months, an analyst suggests that the bull market may just be beginning based on five on-chain indicators.
Since February, the total market capitalization of crypto has been range-bound at around $2.5 trillion, leading to conflicting opinions about whether the cycle is already over or not.
However, according to analyst “ELI5 of TLDR,” these five on-chain indicators indicate that the bull market is just starting.
Firstly, Bitcoin’s market dominance is above 56%. Historically, bull markets in crypto begin with a high level of Bitcoin dominance, as most traders sell their altcoins during the previous bear market cycle. Currently, BTC dominance remains high at just over 56%.
Secondly, the Bitcoin MVRV Z score is under 6. This score compares Bitcoin’s current market value to its historical average value, and during cycle peaks, it typically reaches around 6. However, it is currently less than half of that, indicating that the cycle peak has not been reached yet.
The third indicator is the Puell Multiple, which has not reached over 3. This metric is calculated by dividing the daily value of Bitcoin mined by the yearly moving average of that value. Peaks of over 3 usually coincide with cycle tops, but it has only reached 2.4 during a price pump in mid-March.
HODL Waves, which show how much BTC is held by different cohorts, also look bullish for Bitcoin. A decrease in peaks in younger bands suggests that selling pressure has been exhausted, leaving room for further gains.
Lastly, the miner revenue per hash is another bullish on-chain metric. This metric shows how much money miners make for their proof-of-work. Past market cycle peaks have seen spikes in miner revenue per hash, and while it will trend down over time, it has recently spiked to $0.3 per terahash per second.
However, there are also on-chain metrics suggesting that the markets may be overheated and reaching a top. The RHODL ratio compares the average price of recently bought coins to the average price of coins bought 1-2 years ago. If new buyers are paying significantly more for BTC than longer-term holders, it could indicate a market peak.
Additionally, the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric, which tracks the movement of coins from old hands to new hands, appears to have peaked. If a large number of old coins start moving at once, it could be a sign of a market peak.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $66,668, a 10% decrease from its mid-March all-time high.
Related Posts
Add A Comment

