Bitcoin (BTC) is putting pressure on a key resistance level as the month of May comes to a close. The price action of BTC is keeping bulls on edge as it struggles to break through old all-time highs. The question remains: can BTC reach $69,000 by June?
The week started off quietly due to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States, which kept institutional activity at bay until May 28. However, macroeconomic catalysts are expected to heat up later in the week with the release of U.S. data, which will have a significant impact on the crypto and risk asset markets.
Bitcoin itself is facing its own challenges. It has been consolidating below all-time highs for over two months, and there is no clear resolution in sight. While there are optimistic predictions for BTC’s price, including a six-figure target for BTC/USD in 2024, there are also concerns of a deeper retracement.
As we approach the end of May, let’s take a look at the factors that could potentially move the market. Bitcoin recently reached above $69,000 but retraced after the weekly close. This move effectively closed the latest “gap” in CME Group Bitcoin futures markets. The weekly close was around $68,500, which was the strongest close since the start of April.
Trading resource Material Indicators emphasized the importance of turning $69,000 into solid support. They noted that despite a green weekly close for BTC, there was another failed attempt to flip $69,000 and a new downward trend signal on the weekly chart.
Monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that there is significant liquidity built around the spot price of BTC. Traders are left guessing which levels will be taken first. At the time of writing, the key levels of interest were $68,100 and $69,800.
Bitcoin aims to consolidate within these levels, according to Michaël van de Poppe, the founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading. The question remains whether BTC will experience a breakout or a breakdown once it leaves its current range. While there is a consensus forming for an upside break, the extent of the market’s rise is still up for debate.
Calls for $95,000 in June and even $150,000 by the end of the year are gaining traction. Some analysts believe that BTC price dips within the range should be ignored, while others are still anticipating a larger correction with a base case around $60,000.
The recent Bitcoin block subsidy halving is still seen as a relevant price catalyst. Bitcoin is currently in a post-halving “re-accumulation phase,” which historically lasts for up to 160 days. Upside continuation is expected once this phase is complete, with a BTC price target of approximately $150,000.
In terms of macroeconomic data, the focus is on the U.S. Producer Price Index (PCE), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The mood regarding risk assets benefiting from loosening Fed policy remains conservative, as interest rate cuts are not expected until September or later. However, U.S. stocks continue to hit all-time highs.
Bitcoin whales, the largest investors in BTC, have been particularly active as the price has advanced and stayed near all-time highs. The balance of whale addresses active within the last 24 hours is at a record high of nearly half a million BTC.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is facing key resistance as the month of May comes to a close. The market is at a critical point, and the resolution of the consolidation below all-time highs remains uncertain. There are optimistic predictions for BTC’s price, but concerns of a deeper retracement still linger. The release of U.S. data later in the week will have a significant impact on the market. Bitcoin whales continue to show strong interest in the cryptocurrency.