Crypto trader Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) could hit a cycle peak of $130,000 to $150,000 by late August to early September, following the pattern of previous post-halving bull markets. The Bitcoin halving, which took place on April 20, occurs approximately every four years and cuts mining rewards by 50%. Brandt’s analysis shows that halving dates have historically aligned well with the start and peak of bull market cycles.
According to Brandt, the last Bitcoin bull market began around 16 months before the May 11, 2020 halving and ended approximately 18 months after that event. He points out that the two previous halvings, on July 9, 2016, and Nov. 28, 2012, exhibited a similar pattern. If this trend continues, Brandt predicts that the next bull market cycle high could be in late August or early September 2025.
While Brandt acknowledges that no analysis method is foolproof when predicting Bitcoin’s cycle high, he notes that past highs have followed a consistent growth pattern. Based on this, he estimates that the bull market high could reach $130,000 to $150,000. Brandt’s analysis suggests that the current bull market began on Dec. 17, 2022, when BTC was trading around $16,800. Since then, Bitcoin has surged over 300% to trade at $67,882.
Despite hitting an all-time high of $73,679 on March 14, Bitcoin has since dropped. Brandt believes there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached a bull market top, as each cycle’s gains are diminishing relative to the previous one. If Bitcoin fails to set a new all-time high and drops below $55,000, Brandt warns of a potential “exponential decay.”