Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest levels in a month, causing traders to speculate on where the price of BTC will go next.
The total purchase price of different hodlers is now becoming a factor as concerns grow about a potential drop below $60,000.
BTC price bottoms are closely tied to hodlers’ purchase prices
On June 14, Bitcoin (BTC) surprised many by experiencing a 3.5% drop, bringing BTC/USD to $64,950 on Bitstamp.
Adding to the current weakness, this move has led to losses of over 6.7% for the week so far – pushing BTC price action to its lowest levels since mid-May, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
“Bitcoin has just broken through the 50-Day Moving Average support,” stated Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators.
While $65,000 has managed to hold as a support level, some are now searching for potential areas where BTC price could find a short-term floor, as reaching new all-time highs seems increasingly unlikely.
Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, believes that hodlers’ purchase prices are about to face a new test in the market.
These levels, also known as realized prices, indicate the total purchase price for investors holding onto coins for different periods of time.
Of particular interest are short-term holders (STHs) – entities holding a unit of BTC for up to 155 days, which represent the more speculative end of the hodler spectrum. Their purchase prices have been a strong support during bull markets since the beginning of 2023.
CryptoQuant currently reports the STH realized price to be $62,200.
Another group, those holding for three to six months, have a realized price of $55,500, while long-term holders have a purchase price of $24,300.
“The length of the correction will be determined by the market, but historically, similar situations have lasted from 65 to 371 days,” commented Adler.
Bitcoin trader anticipates an “illiquid squeeze”
Earlier, concerns were raised about the possibility of Bitcoin dropping back to $60,000 on the BTC/USD chart – and that even this level may not hold as support.
Should this scenario unfold, veteran trader Peter Brandt cautioned that BTC could drop as low as $48,000.
Others are focusing on shorter-term areas of interest based on exchange order book activity. Popular trader Skew noted on June 15 the increase in bid liquidity around $62,000.
“It appears that the bid wall around $65K was partially anticipated. There is a noticeable gap between bids and asks on the largest global exchange, Binance,” Skew observed.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows a line of liquidity at $64,900 – just below the intraday lows – growing in size at the time of writing.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
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