Bitcoin is starting a new week on a different note compared to much of June, as it hovers around one-month lows.
Bitcoin’s price has taken a hit after struggling to break through the $70,000 barrier several times. The question on everyone’s mind is, what comes next?
With a stubborn trading range dictating Bitcoin’s market movements, traders and analysts are pondering who will take the reins – the bulls or the bears.
Last week, a slew of US macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve comments seemed to weigh heavily on Bitcoin, causing the largest cryptocurrency to drop almost 5% and briefly dip below $65,000.
While this week may see fewer macro triggers, employment figures could still surprise, as the US inflation outlook continues to send mixed signals to risk assets.
Many are adopting a wait-and-see approach when it comes to BTC/USD. Until there are signs of a shift in the range, the best course of action seems to be patience.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are adapting to the new post-halving landscape as a “capitulation” phase unfolds. Network fundamentals are cooling down, with mining difficulty expected to decrease by about 1.3% this week.
With all-time highs seemingly out of reach for now, Cointelegraph delves into the key talking points surrounding BTC price for market observers and participants.
BTC price flirts with support failure
A tough week for Bitcoin bulls concluded with BTC/USD down 4.3% at the weekly close, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
After hitting one-month lows, bulls managed a slight recovery to refocus attention on the $66,000 mark – a level that remains relevant as of June 17.
Despite the challenging week, there was little hope for a decisive resistance/support flip at key levels such as $69,000 and above.
According to DecenTrader, “Bitcoin remains in the red on the 3-day Predator. There are still no significant signs of a trend shift.”
Data from CoinGlass highlights the importance of the $66,000 level in terms of order book liquidity, with $67,300 acting as a key resistance.
This has led to a narrow trading corridor, with traditional finance unable to sway the status quo during the first Asia trading session of the week.
Popular trader Jelle emphasized the importance of patience during sideways price action, noting that a lack of it could be detrimental.
Jelle described the weekend’s movements as “typical” for Bitcoin, pointing out bullish divergence and the struggle to hold above $66,300.
Others, like commentator Matthew Hyland, found reasons for optimism, noting that Bitcoin’s 10-week simple moving average remained intact despite the recent dip.
Jobless claims to highlight a calmer macro week
After a flurry of macroeconomic data in June, the upcoming week offers traders a break.
Only US jobless claims could potentially lead to volatility across crypto markets, given the sector’s sensitivity to employment surprises.
The Juneteenth holiday on June 19 will give the entire US market a breather, with jobless claims due the following day.
The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the impact of ongoing data releases on market expectations for significant US financial policy easing.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the earliest likely date for Fed interest rate cuts remains the September meeting, with only around 10% odds of a cut in the upcoming July meeting.
Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro believes the data is pointing towards a shift to more accommodative monetary policy sooner rather than later.
Tedtalksmacro stressed the importance of Bitcoin holding the $66,000 support level in the face of any macro surprises.
Bitcoin miner capitulation in full swing
Bitcoin’s network fundamentals continue to adjust post-halving as miners face economic challenges.
Current estimates suggest a 1.3% drop in mining difficulty at the next automated readjustment on June 20.
This reflects the mixed landscape since April’s block subsidy halving, with miners still adapting to the new economic reality.
A “capitulation” phase is currently underway on hashrate, with the 30-day moving average below its 60-day equivalent, as indicated by the hash ribbons metric.
Kripto Mevismi from CryptoQuant highlighted the challenges faced by miners post-halving but emphasized the market’s resilience and strength.
Hash ribbons’ last capitulation signal in August 2023 led to BTC/USD dropping to $25,000.
BTC wallet numbers erase bear market fears
Bitcoin whales have been accumulating despite short-term price fluctuations, indicating their optimism for future price movements.
Smaller-volume wallets are also on the rise, with Santiment reporting that wallets holding 10 BTC or more now number 16.16 million – the highest since June 2022.
The rise in wallet numbers reflects a 226% increase in Bitcoin’s market value since then.
Santiment referenced the fall of exchange FTX in 2022, which triggered a bear market capitulation and subsequent bullish comeback in 2023.
Bitcoin ETF coins offer strong support
Whales have been hodling Bitcoin bought before the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, turning them into longer-term holders.
According to CryptoQuant, short-term holders have transitioned into long-term holders, providing a strong support indicator for Bitcoin.
As Bitcoin’s short-term holders represent a key support trendline during the current bull market, their aggregate cost basis is just above $62,000.
This article provides insights into the latest developments in the Bitcoin market and is not intended as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any decisions.