Bitcoin has recently dropped below $64,000, shattering its short-term holder realized price and indicating a potential further decline to levels not seen in 49 days, as reported by cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant.
According to a post by CryptoQuant on June 21, Bitcoin is currently trading under the critical support level of $65.8K, now below $64K. This dip below the threshold suggests a possible 8%-12% correction towards $60K, a level that has not been breached since May 3 when Bitcoin was priced at $59,122, based on CoinMarketCap data.
On June 22, Bitcoin experienced a 2% decrease, falling to $63,442, dropping below the short-term holder realized price of $64,230 at that time, according to LookIntoBitcoin. The short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) is a crucial indicator for traders as it represents the aggregate cost basis of more speculative Bitcoin holders – wallets holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less.
This price point can serve as a strong support, as seen during most of the bull markets since early 2023. Although Bitcoin’s price has tested the STH-RP multiple times in recent weeks, breaching this level raises concerns among traders about a possible further decline in the price of Bitcoin.
Crypto trader Crypto Caesar mentioned on June 19 that Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price typically acts as support in upward trending markets, questioning whether it will hold. LookIntoBitcoin founder Phillip Swift also commented on the situation.
A drop to $60,000 could result in wiping out $1.64 billion in long positions, according to CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin might experience an upward swing after an extended period of consolidation. With the price hovering around $65,000, traders are speculating on the next move, especially after significant events earlier this year such as the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January and the Bitcoin halving in April.
On June 13, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin has been in its longest consolidation period in 92 days, leading analysts to believe that the extended stability could pave the way for a substantial upside rally.
Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of on-chain and market analytics firm CryptoQuant, believes that Bitcoin network fundamentals could support a market cap three times its current size compared to the last cyclical peak.
Young Ju also referred to a chart on May 8 comparing BTC’s price and hash rate to market capitalization ratio, highlighting the ongoing volatility of the crypto and the resilience of the Bitcoin network. If this ratio continues to grow, Young Ju suggested that it could potentially sustain Bitcoin’s price at $265,000.