A recent report from GSR Markets suggests that the introduction of Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States could potentially boost SOL’s price by a significant margin, potentially up to ninefold. Released on June 27, the report positions Solana as a key player among the “crypto’s big three” and speculates on the likelihood of a spot Solana ETF gaining regulatory approval in the US.
GSR’s analysis, coinciding with VanEck’s filing for a spot Solana ETF on the same day, forecasts an ambitious “blue sky scenario” where SOL could surge from its current $149 price to over $1,320. This surge would drive Solana’s market cap to $614 billion, assuming no change in supply.
In less optimistic scenarios considered by GSR, where the spot Solana ETFs capture smaller percentages of Bitcoin’s market flow upon launch, SOL’s price could still see notable increases. These scenarios project potential price rises of 1.4x to 3.4x, depending on varying adoption rates.
GSR further suggests that these estimates might be conservative if the spot Solana ETFs also incorporate staking rewards, a feature not allowed in approved spot Ether (ETH) ETFs. Despite this optimism, experts like Bloomberg’s ETF analyst Eric Balchunas caution that significant changes in US presidential leadership and within the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be necessary for serious consideration of a spot Solana ETF. The SEC’s current classification of SOL as a security in lawsuits against major platforms complicates the regulatory pathway, contrasting with the approvals granted to Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.
In related developments, VanEck’s application follows closely on the heels of Canada’s 3iQ filing for a spot Solana ETF, marking a pioneering move in North America.
The broader Solana ecosystem has garnered praise from Franklin Templeton, a prominent asset manager overseeing $1.5 trillion, although no commitment has been made regarding a potential spot Solana ETF.
Already, over $1 billion worth of Solana exchange-traded products are available globally, underscoring growing investor interest and market expansion.