Bitcoin (BTC) is endeavoring to rebound from losses incurred in June, yet insights from onchain data indicate potential hurdles near the $65,000 mark.
Market analytics from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView depict BTC trading at $62,288, a minor decline of 0.5% within the last 24 hours and a notable 8.6% downturn over the past month. This decline follows a prolonged downtrend throughout June that wiped out gains from May.
Historical data from Coinglass highlights a tendency for Bitcoin to bounce back robustly in July following negative performances in June. Specifically, July has historically delivered an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% for BTC.
Nevertheless, technical and onchain analyses suggest that any recovery efforts in July could encounter resistance around the $65,000 threshold. Examination of the daily chart reveals formidable resistance levels between $61,817 and $56,914, bracketed by the 100-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) respectively.
“In the short term, resistance is anticipated near the $65,000 mark, potentially prompting short-term speculators to offload positions at breakeven,” noted analysts from Blockware Intelligence in their recent newsletter.
June’s downturn has driven Bitcoin’s spot price well below the average short-term holder (STH) cost basis, raising concerns of further corrections. As of June 28, the STH cost basis stood at $64,513, whereas the spot price hovered around $60,317, according to LookIntoBitcoin data.
This discrepancy implies that short-term holders currently face losses and might opt to exit the market either at a loss or to break even, possibly intensifying selling pressures around the $65,000 level.
Independent analyst Ali Martinez concurs with this assessment, predicting potential resistance above $65,000 based on the MVRV metric. Martinez suggests that breaching this level could pave the way for Bitcoin’s ascent towards $78,700.
Furthermore, Coinglass’s Bitcoin 1-month liquidation heatmap reveals significant sell-bids totaling $1.23 billion forming at $64,940.
Meanwhile, Thomas Fahrer, founder of crypto firm Apollo, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects above $65,000, highlighting potential liquidations of $940 million in Bitcoin shorts at that threshold.
“This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.”