Bitcoin is currently in the process of recovering from the losses it experienced in June, but data from onchain sources suggests that it could encounter resistance around the $65,000 level.
Information obtained from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently being traded at $62,288, showing a decrease of 0.5% over the past 24 hours and 8.6% over the last month. These figures reflect a prolonged downward trend in June that negated all the progress made in May.
Coinglass data reveals that historically, when Bitcoin undergoes a negative June, it tends to rebound significantly in July. On average, BTC has demonstrated a return of 7.98% with a median return of 9.60% during this month.
Nonetheless, both technical analysis and onchain data suggest that the recovery efforts this month might face obstacles due to selling pressure near the $65,000 threshold. Examination of the daily chart indicates that the Bitcoin price is encountering strong resistance in its journey to recovery, particularly within the range of $61,817 to $56,914, where the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA intersect.
According to analysts at Blockware Intelligence, there could be resistance around the $65,000 mark in the short term as market speculators may seek to exit their positions at a breakeven level.
The decline in Bitcoin’s spot price following the June downturn has dipped below the widely monitored short-term holder (STH) cost basis, sparking concerns of further corrections. LookIntoBitcoin data reveals that as of June 28, the cost basis for short-term holders was $64,513, while the spot price hovered around $60,317.
Short-term holders now potentially face losses and may opt to leave the market at a loss or breakeven, potentially exacerbating selling pressure near the $65,000 level.
Independent analyst Ali Martinez supports this perspective, indicating that based on the market-value-to-realized-value metric, Bitcoin’s price might face resistance above $65,000, but a breakthrough could pave the way for a rally towards $78,700.
The Bitcoin one-month liquidation heatmap by Coinglass shows sell bids totaling $1.23 billion accumulating around $64,940, further signaling potential selling pressure in that vicinity.
While some, like Thomas Fahrer, founder of crypto company Apollo, express optimism about Bitcoin’s potential to surpass $65,000, it is important to note that this article is not intended as investment advice. All investment and trading decisions carry inherent risks, and readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any decisions.