The upcoming United States presidential election in 2024 has put cryptocurrencies in a unique position as a campaign issue. Many individuals in the industry have shown support for former US president and Republican nominee Donald Trump, as his pro-crypto policy promises are seen as a potential catalyst for industry growth. Despite opinion polls indicating that the race is still undecided, some crypto traders, like Satoshi Flipper, argue that the market has not yet priced in the possibility of a Trump victory. They believe that a Republican win would strengthen the ongoing bull market for Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins.
As the election draws closer, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have started favoring Trump, with his probability of winning increasing to around 60%. However, this significant gap has raised concerns about potential manipulation. Prediction market proponents, like Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour, have strongly contested these claims.
Erik Finman, a teenage Bitcoin millionaire, expressed his optimism about a Trump victory, stating that it would create a pro-crypto environment in the US and attract significant investments to the crypto markets. He believes that Trump’s policies would fuel massive growth across the board. Crypto Rand, a pseudonymous crypto market analyst and trader, also highlighted Trump’s non-hostile stance toward cryptocurrencies as a bullish aspect of his administration. This alone sets the US up to be a leader in the crypto space.
However, not everyone is convinced of the positive impact of a Trump win. Mark Cuban, an American businessman and Shark Tank star, has lobbied Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign for more crypto-friendly policies. He argues that if Trump wins, the crypto markets will experience a short-term pump followed by a descent. Cuban believes that Trump’s economic policies, which he considers inflationary, could hinder Bitcoin’s price action.
Trump has made several pro-crypto promises that appeal to single-issue crypto voters. One of the major promises is his assertion that he would fire the US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler “on day one” of his presidency. While Trump may not be able to do this directly, experts suggest that he could demote Gensler to a mere commissioner and nominate a new candidate aligned with his policy preferences. However, the final decision would rest with the US Senate.
Basel Ismail, the CEO of investment analytics platform Blockcircle, believes that a new SEC chair supportive of crypto would boost Bitcoin’s adoption and pave the way for a resurgence of altcoins. Several altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) awaiting SEC approval, such as XRP and Solana, could potentially benefit from Trump’s appointment of a new SEC commissioner who may not prioritize the processes followed in recent years.
Trump’s pro-crypto promises are ambitious, with his vision for the US to become the world capital of crypto. Crypto Rand believes that Trump’s commitment to creating a crypto advisory council is highly significant, as it would provide industry experts the opportunity to advise and create more appropriate regulations. Additionally, Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy Digital, suggests that clarifying regulations around cryptocurrencies could benefit altcoins more than Bitcoin, potentially leading to a surge in their performance.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) and memecoins markets are expected to benefit from a Trump victory. Trump has actively promoted his new DeFi project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), which is set to be integrated with Aave. Ismail points out that Trump himself holds multiple memecoins in his personal wallets, having received them through airdrops.
While Trump’s broader economic policies could benefit the crypto industry, there are concerns that some of his proposals, such as inflationary economic policies and tariffs, could harm crypto. Lowering capital gains taxes is seen as a positive move that would boost investment incentives and fuel growth in the crypto industry. However, Cuban argues that Trump’s tariffs would increase inflation and ultimately cause interest rates to rise, which could negatively impact crypto.
Although Trump may now portray himself as pro-crypto, he did not support Bitcoin or altcoins during his previous presidential term. He even referred to crypto as “based on thin air” and a scam on Fox News. However, some believe that Trump’s sudden change in stance may be positive, as it demonstrates his persuadability, open-mindedness, and willingness to adapt to new information. Others view his embrace of crypto as opportunistic, allowing him to gather new support and campaign funds.
In conclusion, the upcoming US presidential election has sparked significant interest in the crypto industry. Many believe that a Trump victory would create a pro-crypto environment and fuel industry growth, while others have concerns about the potential negative impact of his economic policies. The final outcome and its implications for the crypto market remain uncertain.