Bitcoin Market Outlook: April Shows Promise but Challenges Remain
After consecutive drawdowns of 17.39% and 2.3% in February and March, Bitcoin’s (BTC) Q2 is shaping up nicely, with a return of 3.77% in April. While fresh yearly lows were formed at $74,500, BTC is currently closer to $90,000 than its new range bottom.
Breakout Achieved, but Caution Prevails
Bitcoin’s higher time frame (HTF) market structure has achieved its first breakout of 2025, fueling optimism among bulls for significant upward momentum. However, the following factors could limit BTC’s gains over the next two weeks, likely capping its price at around $90,000.
Bitcoin Needs Spot Volume, Not Just Leverage-Driven
Cointelegraph identified a cooldown period in the futures market as the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio dropped by 50%. De-leveraging in the futures market is a positive development over the long term, but derivatives traders have taken control of the market at the time as well.
Surge in Aggressive Buying
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin’s cumulative net taker volume spiked to $800 million on April 11, hinting at a surge in aggressive buying. BTC price also jumped from $78,000 to $85,000 within three days, confirming previous historical patterns where high net take volume triggers price rallies.
Likewise, Maartunn, a community analyst at CryptoQuant, confirmed that the current rally is a “leverage-driven pump.” The discrepancy arises because retail or spot traders are still not as relevant.
Apparent Demand on the Path to Recovery
As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin apparent demand is on a recovery path, but it is not net positive yet. Historically, 30-day apparent demand can move sideways for a prolonged period after BTC reaches a local bottom, leading to a sideways chop for the crypto.
Thus, it is less likely that Bitcoin could breach $90,000 in the first attempt after dropping close to 20% until there is collective buying pressure from both spot and futures markets.
Large Liquidation Clusters Between $80-$90K May Bait Traders
With futures traders positioning in either direction, data from CoinGlass highlighted significant cumulative long and short liquidation leverage between $80,000 and $90,000. Taking $85,100 at the base price, total cumulative short positions at risk of liquidation are at $6.5 billion if BTC price hits $90,035.
On the other hand, $4.86 billion in long orders will be wiped out if BTC drops to $80,071. While liquidation clusters do not determine directional bias, they can create long or short squeezes, baiting traders on either side of respective trades.
With such high capital at risk under $90,000, it is possible that Bitcoin may target each cluster before moving toward the dominant side.
Disclaimer
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.