Voting commenced for the Portugal general elections on the morning of March 10, 2024, just one month before the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, which marked the end of the Salazar dictatorship. These elections represent a significant change in Portugal’s political landscape.
In 2022, former Prime Minister Antonio Costa achieved a historic victory, securing an outright majority in parliament with 41.37% of the votes. The center-left Socialist Party (PS) was able to govern the country without forming coalitions.
However, the socialist administration has been marred by corruption and scandals, leading to several resignations, including that of Prime Minister Costa. These events prompted the President of the Republic to call for new elections and have shaken the PS’s dominance in Portuguese politics.
The latest poll from Consulmark2 shows a close race in the election. The new center-right coalition Democratic Alliance (AD), led by candidate Luis Montenegro, holds a slight lead with nearly 30% of respondents favoring them. However, the PS’s Pedro Nuno Santos is not far behind with 27% of the support. The right-wing party Chega, founded by André Ventura, holds a strong position with 18.2% of the votes.
In the lower range, the center-right Liberal Initiative (IL) (6%), left-wing Left Block (BE) (5.2%), ecosocialist Livre (4.6%), and communist Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) (2.5%) may have the opportunity to influence the government as part of a coalition.
Portugal has gained a global reputation for being crypto-friendly since 2016. Its unique tax regime and regulations have transformed the country into a hub for crypto users and blockchain companies. The question arises: how would a new government with different policies impact Portugal’s status as a digital asset hub, one of Europe’s few crypto hotspots?
The Portuguese elections have the potential to alter crypto-friendly policies. Interestingly, all national political parties in Portugal have included cryptocurrency positions in their electoral programs. The novel political party Chega is the most crypto-friendly group, with a commitment to solidifying Portugal’s status as a global crypto hub. They aim to expand blockchain technology adoption at the institutional level and include coding and blockchain in school curriculums.
The center-right AD also supports coding in the national education program to position Portugal within the top 10 countries in digitalization in Europe by 2030, although there is no mention of blockchain. Chega proposes studying the use of blockchain technology to reduce bureaucracy, improve administrative procedures, and ensure transparency.
The socialist PS has already enabled crypto-friendly policies and aims to resume its Web3 national strategy. However, an alliance between PS, BE, and CDU could potentially lead to the abandonment of crypto-friendly policies.
The effects on the Portuguese crypto community could be significant. Continuity in crypto legislation would be positive for the community, while a more restrictive approach could lead to some members considering leaving the country. However, the crypto industry is location-agnostic and can easily move.
Portugal has the opportunity to create sustainable generational wealth through crypto adoption. The country can become a major international player by exporting cutting-edge technology and expertise. However, the industry needs to settle and mature for this potential to be realized.
In this election, the future of Portuguese political society and the establishment of a digital asset hub are at stake.