Bitcoin Price Expected to Rise After Halving Event Despite Recent Drop
Experts predict that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will experience a significant increase following the upcoming halving event, even though the world’s largest cryptocurrency has dropped nearly 15% from its recent all-time high of $73,738 over the past six days.
Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Fund, stated in a post on March 19 that it is normal to see a lot of volatility in the months leading up to and after the Bitcoin halving. He speculated that the 12-month period following the event would offer the best risk-reward timeframe for investors.
Edwards also suggested that there would be a shutdown of inefficient miners after the halving event, which is scheduled to take place sometime between April 18 and 20.
On March 20, Bitcoin briefly fell to $61,593 and is currently trading at $62,690, according to CoinGecko data. Edwards acknowledged that the correction is not yet over, but he remains optimistic about the long-term price action.
While Edwards attributed Bitcoin’s price action primarily to the halving event, Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, claimed that the market is being driven by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows rather than the halving.
Ju explained that after the halving, mining expenses will double, prompting miners to maintain certain prices for mining profitability. He added that although the direct cost per coin will rise to approximately $37,000, it is no longer a problem for miners at the current price of $63,000.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital, who has a substantial following on social media, expressed the belief that Bitcoin still has room to fall further. The analyst highlighted that BTC has already entered a “danger zone” where historical pre-halving retraces have begun.
Looking at past halving events, Bitcoin experienced a 50% pullback in the months leading up to the 2020 halving, which was further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic in March. However, it spent the rest of that halving year consolidating around $10,000 before the bull market resumed in 2021.
In 2016, Bitcoin prices retreated 33% around the time of the halving before making gains at the end of the year and surging into a bull market in 2017, reaching a peak of $20,000.
The upcoming halving in 2024 is largely uncharted territory, as previous halvings occurred at much lower prices and did not have the same level of institutional support provided by spot Bitcoin ETFs.