Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant drop below the $61,000 level on March 19, causing some traders to exit their positions. Data from investment firm Farside shows that this drop resulted in approximately $480 million in outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past two days.
While this drop may lead to another round of selling if Bitcoin ETF investments fail to pick up, it does not necessarily mean that the bull market is over. According to Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards, it is “normal” for volatility to increase around the time of the Bitcoin Halving, which occurs one month before or after the event. Additionally, the 12-month period following the halving has historically offered the best risk-reward tradeoff for Bitcoin.
Despite the market uncertainty, MicroStrategy, one of the largest public holders of Bitcoin, continues to buy more. The company’s Executive Chairman, Michael Saylor, stated that they purchased an additional 9,245 Bitcoin using convertible notes and excess cash. This purchase brings their total Bitcoin holdings to 214,246, which accounts for more than 1% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.
Now, let’s take a look at the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to determine if Bitcoin and altcoins will continue their correction or if a recovery is imminent.
Bitcoin Price Analysis:
On March 18, Bitcoin turned down from the support line of the ascending channel, indicating that bears are attempting to turn this level into resistance. As a result, the price dropped below the 20-day exponential moving average ($65,271) on March 19.
Currently, the bulls are trying to halt the decline at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $61,736. If the price bounces from this level, it will likely face selling pressure at the 20-day EMA. A sharp turn down from the 20-day EMA would indicate strong selling on rallies. However, if the bulls manage to defend the 50-day SMA ($56,614), it is expected that they will aggressively buy at this level.
A rise above the 20-day EMA would be the first sign of strength and could suggest that the corrective phase is over. In that case, the price could rise to $69,000, which is the final hurdle before challenging the all-time high at $73,777.
Ether Price Analysis:
Ether (ETH) failed to maintain its position above the 20-day EMA ($3,550) on March 18, resulting in aggressive selling by traders. This caused the price to drop to the 50-day SMA ($3,113) on March 20.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down, and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. A recovery is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA, which could keep the ETH/USDT pair trading between the two moving averages for some time.
If the price breaks below the 50-day SMA, it suggests that bulls are quickly exiting their positions, potentially leading to a drop to $2,717. On the other hand, a break and close above the 20-day EMA would signal a comeback by the bulls.
BNB Price Analysis:
BNB’s (BNB) pullback reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $500 on March 19, just below the 20-day EMA ($511).
The bulls are attempting to stop the fall at the 20-day EMA, which is a positive sign. If successful, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to $590, where a tough battle between bulls and bears is expected.
A turn down from $590 would indicate bearish activity at higher levels, increasing the risk of a slide to the breakout level of $460. Conversely, a break above $590 would suggest that the pullback may be over, potentially leading to a climb to $645.
Solana Price Analysis:
Solana (SOL) briefly broke above the $205 resistance on March 18 but failed to sustain the breakout, leading short-term traders to take profits.
The SOL/USDT pair dipped to the 20-day EMA ($158) on March 20, a crucial support level to watch. A strong rebound from this level would indicate positive sentiment and prompt the bulls to attempt another push above the overhead resistance at $205.
However, a shallow bounce would suggest a lack of aggressive buying at current levels. If the price slips below the 20-day EMA, selling pressure could intensify, potentially causing the pair to drop to the 50-day SMA ($126).
XRP Price Analysis:
XRP (XRP) has been trading within a large range between $0.46 and $0.74 for several months. Trading within a range can be volatile and unpredictable.
The XRP/USDT pair is currently attempting to find support at the uptrend line. However, any relief rally is likely to face selling pressure at the 20-day EMA. A turn down from the 20-day EMA and a break below the uptrend line could cause the pair to slump to the range support at $0.46.
Alternatively, a break above the 20-day EMA would suggest a potential comeback by the bulls. If the pair rises above $0.67, bullish momentum could increase, potentially leading to a climb to the formidable resistance at $0.74.
Cardano Price Analysis:
Cardano (ADA) turned lower from the 20-day EMA ($0.68) on March 18 and dropped below the 50-day SMA ($0.62) on March 19.
The ADA/USDT pair is currently attempting to find support at $0.57, but any recovery is likely to face selling pressure at the moving averages. A turn down from the moving averages would increase the likelihood of a break below $0.57, potentially causing a drop to $0.53.
A move above the 50-day SMA would bring the pair to the 20-day EMA, which is a critical overhead resistance level to watch. A break above this level would suggest a reduction in selling pressure.
Dogecoin Price Analysis:
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery attempts on March 17 were met with selling pressure, causing the price to drop below the 20-day EMA ($0.15) on March 18.
Selling continued on March 19, resulting in a drop to the strong support level at $0.12 on March 20. Buyers are expected to defend the 50-day SMA ($0.11), but they may struggle to push the price above $0.16.
The 20-day EMA is turning down, and the RSI is slightly below the midpoint, indicating a slight advantage for bears. A break above $0.16 would bring bulls back in command, potentially clearing the path for a rally to $0.19.
Avalanche Price Analysis:
Avalanche (AVAX) saw profit booking at higher levels on March 18, as shown by the long wick on the candlestick. This selling pressure resulted in a drop to the breakout level of $50 on March 20.
Buyers will attempt to turn the $50 level into support. If successful, the AVAX/USDT pair may rise toward $65. However, a turn down from the overhead resistance could result in consolidation between $50 and $65.
A break and close below $50 would indicate that bulls are exiting their positions, potentially causing the pair to drop to the next solid support at the 50-day SMA ($42). To signal a resumption of the uptrend, the bulls will need to push the price above $65.
Shiba Inu Price Analysis:
Shiba Inu (SHIB) fell below the $0.000029 support on March 16, and the bears successfully defended the retest on March 17, indicating an attempt to turn this level into resistance.
On March 20, the SHIB/USDT pair dropped to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.000023, which is the last level of support. A break below this level could result in a drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.000017). The deeper the fall, the longer it will likely take for a new upward move to begin.
To suggest that the correction may be over, the bulls will need to drive and sustain the price above the resistance line. This could lead to a move towards the overhead resistance levels of $0.000035 and eventually $0.000039.
Toncoin Price Analysis:
Toncoin (TON) pulled back to the 20-day EMA ($3.39) but saw aggressive buying from the bulls, leading to a strong bounce on March 17.
Although the bears attempted to sink the price below the 20-day EMA on March 18 and 19, the bulls managed to hold their ground. Buyers are now trying to sustain the price above $4.15, which could result in a rise to $4.60. A break and close above this level would indicate the start of the next leg of the uptrend, potentially leading to a move to $5.64.
The 20-day EMA is a crucial support level to watch. A break below this level would suggest a possible local top.
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice or a recommendation. Every investment and trading decision involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.