Analysts’ Optimism for Bitcoin in 2024 Extends Beyond the Halving

Industry analysts believe that the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving in April will contribute to the cryptocurrency’s potential for significant gains this year. While the halving will reduce daily BTC production by 450 BTC from the current average of 900 BTC, it is overshadowed by daily fiat flows in and out of crypto exchanges and Bitcoin ETFs. Inflows and outflows can easily exceed ten times the value of the supply cut. Demand for Bitcoin has historically been correlated with global liquidity measures, such as the global broad money supply. The halving is just one factor among many that determine the occurrence and timing of a bull market. Various factors, including global liquidity, HODL waves, and other catalysts, play larger roles in determining Bitcoin’s performance. Analysts project that Bitcoin could reach $77,000 by early April and $99,000 by May 2024, based on historical price changes and recent highs. Despite potential corrections and retracements, Bitcoin’s breakout level of $68,300 could indicate higher prices in the coming weeks and months. This rally marks the first time Bitcoin has posted a parabolic rise and hit an all-time high before the halving. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has led to an increase in demand that outstrips the new supply. This cycle is expected to be more institutional-driven, compared to previous cycles that were predominantly driven by retail demand. Bitcoin miners have been actively selling BTC since August 2023 in preparation for the upcoming halving. Macroeconomic developments, including expectations of softer monetary policy and lower interest rates, as well as geopolitical risks and uncertainties, could further drive Bitcoin’s price this year. Bitcoin halvings, which occur approximately every four years, are designed to maintain its scarcity and counteract inflation. Previous halvings have been associated with post-halving rallies, with Bitcoin reaching a historic milestone of $20,000 in December 2017 after the 2016 halving.