Crypto enthusiasts are engaging in a unique form of gambling as they place bets on whether the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of May. Polymarket, a popular crypto gambling platform built on the Polygon network, has created a betting market where traders can wager on the approval or rejection of the spot Ether ETF application.
Currently, over $2.4 million has been wagered on the outcome, and the majority of bettors, approximately 81%, are pessimistic about the chances of the ETF being approved before the deadline. Traders have the option to buy shares for either a “Yes” or “No” outcome, with the value of the shares reflecting the odds of the bet. Similar to the volatility of the crypto market, the share prices fluctuate based on traders’ predictions and market sentiment.
As of now, a share predicting a “Yes” outcome is valued at $0.19, while a share predicting a “No” outcome is valued at $0.81. This indicates that fewer gamblers believe in the possibility of the spot Ether ETF getting approved before the end of May. The top trader holding “Yes” shares has invested approximately $84,000, whereas the top holder of “No” shares has around $127,000 invested.
If the SEC does approve a spot Ether ETF before the May 31 deadline, the betting market will be resolved, and those holding “Yes” shares will be able to cash out their earnings. Conversely, if no approvals are granted by the specified date, the opposite will occur.
This is not the first time that crypto traders have turned to gambling to predict the outcome of ETF approvals. In January, Polymarket users faced criticism on Reddit for betting on whether spot Bitcoin ETFs would be approved by the SEC. Some users found the practice foolish, likening it to risking dollars to win mere dimes. However, despite the skepticism, the SEC did approve the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs shortly after.
Grayscale, an investment management company, remains optimistic about the approval of spot Ether ETFs in May. Craig Salm, Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, stated that the SEC’s perceived lack of engagement with applicants does not necessarily indicate whether an ETF will be approved or not.
In conclusion, the crypto gambling market surrounding the approval of a spot Ether ETF has gained significant traction, with millions of dollars at stake. Traders are eagerly awaiting the SEC’s decision, hoping to cash in on their predictions.