Crypto enthusiasts are engaging in a unique form of gambling, placing bets on whether the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) before the end of May. Polymarket, a popular crypto gambling site, is hosting this unconventional betting market.
According to Polymarket, over $2.4 million has been wagered on the outcome, with a staggering 81% of participants pessimistic about the chances of spot Ether ETF approval before the deadline. Traders can buy “Yes” or “No” shares based on their predictions, and the value of these shares fluctuates similarly to the crypto market.
Currently, a “Yes” share is worth $0.19, while a “No” share is valued at $0.81. This indicates that fewer gamblers believe in the possibility of spot ETH ETFs receiving approval by the end of May. The top holder of “Yes” shares has approximately $84,000 invested, while the leading holder of “No” shares has around $127,000 at stake.
If the SEC grants approval for a spot Ether ETF before the May 31, 2024 deadline, the betting market will be resolved, allowing holders of “Yes” shares to cash out their earnings. Conversely, if no approvals are made before the deadline, the opposite applies.
This is not the first time crypto traders have bet on ETF approval outcomes. In January, Reddit users criticized Polymarket gamblers for wagering on the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC. Some users described the betting as foolish, likening it to putting up dollars to win dimes. Others joked about risking their children’s college funds to place bets.
Overall, the bets placed on ETF outcomes have surpassed $12 million on the prediction market. In January, the SEC approved the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. Investment management company Grayscale remains optimistic about a positive decision from the SEC regarding spot Ether ETFs by May. Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, Craig Salm, stated that the SEC’s perceived lack of engagement with applicants does not necessarily indicate whether an ETF will be approved or not.
In other news, KuCoin has organized a desperate $10 million airdrop, and a single tweet has managed to raise $37 million for a memecoin, as reported by Asia Express magazine.