Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a rally last week, but it is still trading within a wide range. The question on every trader’s mind is whether Bitcoin has reached its peak or if the rally will continue. Analyst “ELI5 of TLDR” has stated in a post that five out of seven on-chain indicators suggest that the bull market may just be getting started, while two indicators show topping patterns.
The bounce in Bitcoin’s price from the psychological support level near $60,000 seems to have generated interest in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Data from Farside Investors shows that there were approximately $950 million in inflows last week, marking the best weekly performance since March. If these inflows continue, Bitcoin could potentially surprise the market with an upward move.
Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, is bullish on Bitcoin. Thielen stated in a report that their Bitcoin ETF model predicts a new all-time high if Bitcoin surpasses $67,500.
The question now is whether the bulls will overcome the resistance and retest the lifetime high. Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index:
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) reached a new all-time high on May 15, indicating that the bulls are in control. However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will attempt to pull the price below the breakout level of 5,265, which would suggest a weakening in bullish momentum. In this case, the index may drop to the 20-day exponential moving average (5,202). On the other hand, if the price rebounds strongly from the moving averages, it will indicate that the trend remains bullish, and the index will make another attempt to move higher towards 5,500. A break below the moving averages would favor the bears, potentially causing the index to plummet to 5,000.
U.S. Dollar Index:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from the support line of an ascending channel pattern on May 16, but the recovery was halted at the 50-day simple moving average (105). The downsloping 20-day EMA (105) and the negative RSI suggest that the bears have the upper hand. If they manage to pull the price below the channel’s support line, the index could decline to 103.17 and then to 102.35. On the other hand, if the price bounces off the support line, it will indicate strong defense by the bulls. To maintain the bullish case, buyers will need to push the price above the moving averages and keep it inside the channel.
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range near the $68,000 level for the past three days. Generally, tight ranges near overhead resistance levels tend to break to the upside. The rising 20-day EMA ($64,371) and the positive RSI indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the $68,000 level is breached, the BTC/USDT pair could begin its journey towards $73,777, a level that may see strong selling pressure from the bears. On the downside, the moving averages act as crucial support levels. A break below these levels would suggest that the bulls have given up, potentially causing the pair to drop to $59,600 and subsequently to $56,552.
Ether:
Ether (ETH) faced rejection from the resistance line on May 19, but the bulls managed to hold the price above the 20-day EMA ($3,048). The bulls will now attempt to push the price above the resistance line, which would signal a potential trend change in the near term. If successful, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to $3,400 and then to the overhead resistance at $3,730. On the other hand, if the bears manage to pull the price below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to the support at $2,850 and potentially to the channel’s support line.
BNB:
BNB has been trading near the moving averages, indicating indecision between the bulls and bears. The flat moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint do not provide a clear advantage for either side. A break below the support line of the triangle would suggest that the bears have taken control, potentially causing the BNB/USDT pair to decline to $536. Conversely, if the price turns up from the support line and breaks above the resistance line, it will signal that the bulls are in control. The pair could then retest the overhead resistance at $635.
Solana:
Solana has been gradually moving towards the immediate resistance at $185, indicating demand from the bulls. The bears attempted to pull the price below the breakout level of $162 on May 19, but the bulls held their ground. The $185 level may act as a minor hurdle, but if the bulls overcome it, the SOL/USDT pair could surge to $205. However, if the price turns down from the current level or $185 and breaks below the moving averages, it would suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair may then drop towards $140.
XRP:
XRP rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.52) on May 17, but the bulls were unable to sustain the higher levels, indicating that the bears are selling during relief rallies. The price is currently squeezed between the support line and the 50-day SMA ($0.53). The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. A break below the support line could cause the XRP/USDT pair to drop to the critical support at $0.46, which is likely to see strong buying from the bulls. On the upside, if the bulls break above the 50-day SMA resistance, the pair could surge to $0.57.
Toncoin:
Toncoin has been trading within a wide range between $4.72 and $7.67, indicating uncertainty about the next move. The flat 20-day EMA ($6.35) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the TON/USDT pair may remain within the range for some time. If the price rebounds strongly from the moving averages, the pair may attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $7.67. Conversely, if the price continues to decrease and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($6.02), it would indicate a slight advantage for the bears. The pair could then drop to the vital support at $4.72, which is expected to be defended vigorously by the bulls.
Dogecoin:
Dogecoin has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.15), indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the DOGE/USDT pair may remain within the $0.12 to $0.17 range for some time. If the price breaks above $0.17, it will signal the end of the correction, and the pair could surge to $0.21. On the other hand, a break below $0.12 would complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially causing the pair to drop to $0.08.
Cardano:
The bulls are facing resistance in pushing Cardano above the 50-day SMA ($0.49), indicating strong defense from the bears. The bears will attempt to pull the price below the 20-day EMA and challenge the support line. If the price bounces off this level, it will suggest that the ADA/USDT pair may remain within the triangle for some time. If the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will again attempt to overcome the resistance line. If successful, the pair may start moving towards $0.52 and then $0.57.
Disclaimer: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.