Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 4% decrease in the past 24 hours, dropping below the $60,000 mark. However, there is a possibility that it may retest $74,000 in the near future, based on the maturing Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern and the increasing likelihood of three rate cuts by the end of 2024.
The Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern is a technical setup that identifies consolidation and accumulation phases after a prolonged uptrend. This pattern consists of nine critical phases, such as Preliminary Supply (PSY), Buying Climax (BC), Automatic Reaction (AR), Secondary Test (ST), Spring, Test, Last Point of Support (LPS), and the Sign of Strength (SOS).
As of August 4th, Bitcoin has entered the “Test” phase of its Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern. During this phase, the cryptocurrency is testing its Spring phase low, which is around $53,400, to confirm a bullish continuation towards its new Last Point of Support (LPS) at approximately $70,000. This information is depicted in a chart shared by independent analyst Moustache on his X channel.
According to the Wyckoff reaccumulation rule, a new uptrend cycle will begin when Bitcoin reaches the ninth and final stage, known as the Sign of Strength (SOS), after retesting the peak level of the Wyckoff pattern, which is around $74,000. This final stage indicates a strong upward movement and market strength, confirming an uptrend.
In addition to the technical analysis, there are also recession risks that may impact Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin has seen a 10% decline alongside the US stock market since August 1st, triggered by high unemployment claims and declining manufacturing activity in the US. During this period, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have witnessed withdrawals of approximately $200 million.
Interestingly, BTC’s decline is occurring despite the increasing likelihood of three rate cuts in 2024, as opposed to the usual trend observed in the past year where crypto markets responded positively to weak economic data.
Bitcoin has historically struggled during periods of heightened recession fears. For instance, during the market crash in March 2020 due to COVID-19, Bitcoin’s price fell in sync with the US stock market. The price of Bitcoin began to rebound when the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing and rate cuts.
Many crypto analysts, including Michael van de Poppe, foresee a similar price trend in the coming weeks. This means that Bitcoin may face recessionary risks but could rebound after the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts in September.
It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.