Bitcoin price has shown resilience despite the recent options expiry, which threatened a significant drop below $85,000.
On December 27, at 8:00 a.m. UTC, over $14.2 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) options expired. The “max pain” point of $85,000 indicated the price at which most options contracts would expire worthless.
According to a report from Deribit Exchange on December 26, a total of $18 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) options expired. The market was heavily leveraged to the upside, and any major downward movement could trigger a rapid snowball effect. The options expiry was being closely watched to determine the narrative heading into 2025.
Despite the options expiry, Bitcoin remained resilient and reached a peak above $97,330 at 9:06 a.m. UTC, one hour after the expiry event, according to Cointelegraph Markets Prodata.
Based on Bitcoin’s correlation with the global liquidity index, there is a possibility that BTC could reach a “local top” above $110,000 in January before a potential correction.
Bitcoin ETFs, which have been a significant factor in Bitcoin’s rally in 2024, ended a four-day losing streak on the day after Christmas. On December 26, the Bitcoin ETFs saw net positive inflows of over $475 million, according to Farside Investors data.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs accounted for approximately 75% of new investments in Bitcoin, pushing its price above $50,000 by February 15.
However, Bitcoin is facing significant resistance around $98,000. If the price surpasses this level, it could result in the liquidation of over $885 million worth of leveraged short positions across all exchanges, as per Coinglass data.
As the Christmas holidays come to an end, more institutional liquidity is expected to return to the crypto space, including ETF inflows. This returning liquidity could potentially push Bitcoin back above $105,000, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.
Analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2025, with some predicting a rally to $160,000 driven by improving macroeconomic conditions and financial policy in the US.