Bitcoin (BTC) achieved its highest-ever three-day candle close at $72,724 on October 29th following an 8.75% surge in just 24 hours. Breaking through the overhead resistance at $71,500, this key indicator suggests that investors may see a potential return on investment (ROI) range of 145%–530% in the next 12 months.
Bitcoin’s price is on the verge of surpassing a seven-month consolidation range, leading the market to anticipate a period of price discovery once BTC hits new all-time highs (ATHs). Past studies and data have consistently shown that Bitcoin adheres to Fibonacci retracement levels between 1.618 and 2.272, with each BTC peak falling within this range.
As shown in the chart, every Bitcoin peak since 2013 has occurred between the 1.618 and 2.272 Fib levels. In the current scenario, the price target at 1.618 is $173,088, while the target at 2.272 is $458,319.
However, historical data reveals that the price tends to top slightly below the previous Fib range. For instance, in 2013, the price peaked just above the 2.272 mark. In 2018, the BTC top was just below the 2.272 Fib line, and in 2021, the cycle high of $69,800 was below the 1.618 level.
Therefore, if the trend of “reduced return over a four-year period” continues, the Bitcoin top in 2025 or 2026 may fall below $173,000.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. emphasizes that the $86,200 level will be a crucial point for Bitcoin bulls. According to his analysis of short-term holders and risk evaluation, reaching $86,200 would push BTC to the high-risk upper boundary for the current cycle.
In the past, this upper-risk boundary acted as a key level where short-term holders took profits between January 2023 and January 2024, causing BTC’s price to hit a temporary ceiling. However, breaching this level led to an exponential rally in 2021 and a period of price discovery.
It’s important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Investing and trading always involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.