The likelihood of United States President Joe Biden securing reelection plummeted to as low as 9% on Polymarket, a decentralized predictions platform, amidst speculation that Vice President Kamala Harris might replace him as the Democratic candidate. Biden’s odds have since rebounded slightly to 10% in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, valued at $226 million.
Meanwhile, former President and Republican contender Donald Trump leads the pack with 61% odds, while Harris follows with 19%. PredictIt, another predictions platform, reflects Biden’s dwindling chances, dropping from $0.25 to $0.20. Harris now emerges as the frontrunner among Democratic hopefuls, although Trump maintains the highest valued “Yes” shares at $0.58.
These developments coincide with mounting concerns from media and commentators about Biden’s suitability for a second term. CNN reports that during a recent White House meeting on July 3, Biden jestingly remarked, “I’m fine — I don’t know about my brain, though,” which reportedly unsettled several U.S. governors. The same report notes Biden’s decision to limit evening events to ensure more rest.
In a subsequent radio interview, Biden mistakenly referred to himself as the “first black woman” U.S. President, sparking widespread circulation of the clip on social media. Polymarket data now suggests a 66% likelihood that Biden might withdraw before the November 4 election, potentially paving the way for Harris as the leading Democratic candidate against Trump.
Despite mounting pressures, Biden has adamantly stated, “I’m not going anywhere,” reaffirming his commitment during an Independence Day speech at the White House on July 4. Notably, neither Biden nor Trump addressed Bitcoin (BTC) or digital asset issues during the first Presidential Debate on June 27.
Looking ahead, Trump and Biden are slated to square off once more in the final Presidential Debate scheduled for September 10.