Wintermute, an algorithmic cryptocurrency trader and liquidity provider, is set to launch the OutcomeMarket US presidential election prediction market in collaboration with Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle. The market will offer HARRIS and TRUMP tokens, which will be available on various blockchains from the fourth week of September.
To ensure accessibility for users on Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum, Wintermute has developed a permissionless smart contract that eliminates the need for asset bridging. This flexible and reliable prediction market will enable trading on centralized and decentralized platforms, as well as usage in DeFi applications. HARRIS and TRUMP tokens will be listed on crypto exchanges such as Bebop, WOO, and Backpack.
Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy expressed confidence in the Chaos Labs oracle, describing it as a unique integration of advanced AI and LLMs with risk models. This integration delivers precise and tamper-proof data feeds while embedding real-time risk assessment directly into the protocol. It’s worth noting that Wintermute is also an investor in Chaos Labs.
Prediction markets allow individuals to place bets on the likelihood of a certain statement proving true or an event taking place in the future. However, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has raised concerns about their susceptibility to manipulation. In response to pressure from US lawmakers, the CFTC proposed a rule in August to ban event contracts (prediction market tokens). While a CFTC order initially prevented CFTC-regulated predictions market Kalshi from betting on the US presidential election outcome, it was later overturned in court. However, the court granted stays to prevent Kalshi from proceeding with election betting. Notably, leading prediction market platform Polymarket does not allow US users.
Regarding OutcomeMarket, Gaevoy stated that it would be up to the trading venues managing the market to handle US exposure. He believes that most, if not all, of them already prohibit US customers.
In conclusion, Wintermute’s launch of the OutcomeMarket US presidential election prediction market, supported by Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle, aims to provide a comprehensive and accessible platform for users to trade HARRIS and TRUMP tokens. The market will leverage a unique integration of advanced AI and risk models to deliver precise and tamper-proof data feeds. While prediction markets face regulatory challenges, Wintermute remains optimistic about the market’s potential.