Bitcoin (BTC) centered on $84,000 at the April 16 Wall Street open amid hopes that a weak US dollar would fuel a bull market comeback.
Bitcoin analysis calls for 2023 rally repeat
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD consolidating after a swift comedown from local highs the day prior. That volatility had accompanied ongoing developments in the US-China trade war, with crypto and risk assets staying sensitive to headlines and statements from parties such as US President Donald Trump. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index traded down 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively, at the time of writing. Gold remained the standout winner, having set new all-time highs above $3,300 per ounce on the day. “Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid,” trading firm QCP Capital summarized in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers. “The ‘alternative store of value’ narrative isn’t gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.”
Looking for potential tailwinds, market participants focused on the US dollar’s inability to reclaim prior support after sliding precipitously as the trade war took hold.
The US dollar index (DXY) hovered near multiyear lows after rejecting at the psychologically significant 100 mark.
“DXY is dropping at its fastest pace since 2023,” popular trader BitBull told followers in a post on X.
BitBull drew comparisons to BTC price performance from the time, with early 2023 seeing Bitcoin and altcoins emerge from the pit of the 2022 bear market. “Back then, $BTC had already bottomed (Q4 2022) and went on to rally 200%+ within a year,” he continued. “I guess it’s time for btc to repeat the 2023-24 rally.”
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at asset management firm Bitwise, meanwhile flagged Goldman Sachs research seeing further DXY downside to come.
“NOTE: US Dollar is still significantly overvalued according to GS,” he commented alongside a Goldman chart of dollar strength versus US growth performance. “Lots of room for USD depreciation = upside potential for BTC to re-rate.”
BTC price gives cautious bullish hints
Bitcoin traders eyed various positive chart signals on the day, with these including a potential bottom formation on the 4-hour chart. “Forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern on the 4H timeframe, if we manage to hold a Higher Low in the coming days,” popular trader Lucas suggested.
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe hoped for a fresh retest of resistance, for him one of two key areas of interest.
“Bitcoin is still nicely consolidating between the two levels,” he concluded. “The test at $87K did happen, and I think that we’ll see a big breakout once we’ll retest it again. What’s next? Likely a run to ATH at the end of this quarter.”
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